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Writer's pictureSimon Charles Hooper

15/12/22 Briefing


The S&P 500 futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 134 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 237 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. 

Equity futures trade with a negative bias after a litany of other banks joined the Fed in raising rates this week. The Bank of England raised its bank rate by 50 bps, as expected, to 3.50%, the Swiss National Bank raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 1.00%, Norges Bank raised its rate by 25 bps to 2.75%, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its rate by 50 bps to 4.75%, as expected.

The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 50-bps rate hike of its own at 8:15 ET.

Separately, China reported weaker than expected November Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment data. So, some of the weakness this morning could be attributed to lingering concerns about central banks raising rates into a deteriorating global economic environment and the adverse impact for earnings growth.

Treasury yields are pulling back somewhat. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.23% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.47%. 

Market participants have a heavy slate of economic data today that includes:

  • 8:30 ET: November Retail Sales (Briefing.comconsensus -0.1%; prior 1.3%), Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.comconsensus 0.2%; prior 1.3%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.comconsensus 227,000; prior 230,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.671 mln), December Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.comconsensus -10.0; prior -19.4), and December Empire State Manufacturing survey (Briefing.comconsensus -1.0; prior 4.5)

  • 9:15 ET: November Industrial Production (Briefing.comconsensus 0.1%; prior -0.1%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.comconsensus 80.0%; prior 79.9%)

  • 10:00 ET: October Business Inventories (Briefing.comconsensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -21 bcf)

  • 16:00 ET: October net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $118.00 bln)

In corporate news:

  • Western Digital (WDC 34.10, -1.73, -4.8%): downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs

  • AT&T (T 18.66, -0.24, -1.3%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

  • Verizon (VZ 37.76, +0.31, +0.8%): upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley 

  • Tesla (TSLA 154.69, -2.11, -1.4%): indicated lower after CEO Elon Musk disclosed the sale of 21,995,000 shares worth more than ~$3.5 bln (transaction dates were 12/12 - 12/14)

  • Fidelity Nat'l Info (FIS 74.12, +1.71, +2.4%): incoming CEO and Board commence review to strengthen performance and drive value creation

  • Novavax (NVAX 15.40, -1.83, -10.6%): announces $125 mln convertible notes offering; co also announces a $125 mln public offering for its common stock; reaffirms FY22 revs guidance

  • American Express (AXP 151.66, -2.45, -1.6%) BofA named a top pick

  • Nordson (NDSN 240.00, +4.09, +1.7%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Lennar (LEN 88.36, -2.46, -2.7%):  beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; expects new orders and deliveries of 12,000-13,500 in FebQ; deliveries of 60,000-65,000 in FY23

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.6%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%, India's Sensex: -1.4%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%.

    • In economic data:

      • China's November Retail Sales -5.9% yr/yr (expected -3.7%; last -0.5%), November Industrial Production 2.2% yr/yr (expected 3.6%; last 5.0%), and November Fixed Asset Investment 5.3% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 5.8%). November House Prices -1.6% yr/yr (last -1.6%)

      • Japan's November trade deficit JPY2.03 trln (expected deficit of JPY1.68 trln; last deficit of JPY2.17 trln). November Imports 30.3% yr/yr (expected 27.0%; last 53.5%) and Exports 20.0% yr/yr (expected 19.8%; last 25.3%). October Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.2% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.2%)

      • South Korea's November Import Price Index 14.2% yr/yr (last 19.8%) and Export Price Index 8.6% yr/yr (last 13.5%)

      • Australia's November Employment Change 64,000 (expected 19,000; last 43,100) and full employment change 34,200 (last 47,100). November Unemployment Rate 3.4%, as expected (last 3.4%) and Participation Rate 66.8% (expected 66.6%; last 66.5%). MI Inflation Expectations 5.2% (last 6.0%)

      • New Zealand's Q3 GDP 2.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.9%; last 1.9%); 6.4% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 0.3%)

    • In news:

      • Equities in China and Hong Kong were pressured by weak November growth figures while property names were also among the laggards.

      • China's National Stats Bureau reiterated that the foundation for an economic recovery is not solid yet. The Chinese government is expected to release a 12-year plan for expanding domestic demand.

      • Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed yesterday's fed funds rate hike with its own 50-bps increase to 4.75%, as expected.

  • Major European indices trade in the red amid focus on central banks. STOXX Europe 600: -1.1%, Germany's DAX: -1.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%, France's CAC 40: -1.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.0%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%.

    • In economic data:

      • Germany's November WPI -0.9% m/m (last -0.6%); 14.9% yr/yr (last 17.4%)

      • France's November CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 1.0%); 6.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 6.2%). December Business Survey 101 (expected 100; last 101)

      • Spain's October trade deficit EUR6.85 bln (last deficit of EUR6.98 bln)

    • In news:

      • The Bank of England raised its bank rate by 50 bps to 3.50%, as expected. Most BoE policymakers believe that further increases will be needed, and the BoE also noted that the U.K. is in a recession, expecting Q4 GDP to contract 0.1%.

      • The Swiss National Bank raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 1.00% and Norges Bank raised its rate by 25 bps to 2.75%.

      • The European Central Bank is expected to announce a 50-bps rate hike of its own at 8:15 ET.

      • The U.K. may extend energy subsidies for businesses past the winter, though at a lower level.

 

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -37 @ 3,959

  • DJIA Futures: -246 @ 33,721

  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -136 @ 11,605

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -1.2%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -1.2%

  • Asia: Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng -1.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +0.08 @ 77.36

  • Nat Gas +0.025 @ 6.455

  • Gold -30.55 @ 1788.15

  • Silver -0.726 @ 23.410

  • Copper -0.0448 @ 3.8332

 

Earnings/Guidance:

  • BigCommerce (BIGC) provides plan to accelerate path to profitability; restructuring aims to move forward breakeven timeline to the fourth quarter of 2023; reaffirms Q4 guidance

  • Hillenbrand (HI) provides FY25 targets in slide presentation

  • Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) plans to reaffirm 2022 guidance and introduce 2026 targets at today's Investor Day

  • Lennar (LEN) beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; expects new orders and deliveries of 12,000-13,500 in FebQ; deliveries of 60,000-65,000 in FY23

  • Nordson (NDSN) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides JanQ EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Novavax (NVAX) reaffirms FY22 revs guidance

  • Planet Labs (PL) reports Q3 (Oct) results, beats on revs; guides JanQ revs in-line

  • RCI Hospitality (RICK) reports SepQ results, beats on EPS and revs

  • TransAlta (TAC) sees FY23 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.20-1.32 bln

  • Trip.comGroup (TCOM) beats by RMB 0.29, beats on revs

  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) increases estimates of previously announced restructuring charges to $4.1-5.3 bln from $3.2-4.3 bln

News:

  • Chinese officials are signaling more stimulus as coronavirus cases continue to rise, according toBloomberg

  • House votes 224-210 on continuing resolution to fund government until December 23to give Senate more time to work on full year spending package

  • Bank of England raises rates by 50 basis points to 3.5%

  • California will vote on change to rooftop solar policy, according to Reuters

  • Senate passes bill 100-0 to ban TikTok from government issued devices

  • SEC proposes rule that would require certain orders of individual investors to be exposed to competition in fair and open auctions

  • AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) and AbbVie (ABBV) partner to advance new antibody therapies

  • Argan (AGX) increases existing share repurchase program to $125 mln from $100 mln

  • AstraZeneca (AZN) and Merck (MRK) provides update on FDA priority review of Lynparza in combination with abiraterone

  • AstraZeneca (AZN) receives orphan designation for treatment of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies

  • Astria Therapeutics (ATXS) announces positive preliminary results from the Phase 1a clinical trial of STAR-0215 in healthy subjects

  • BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) discontinues development of BCX9930 and shifts focus to potential once-daily, oral factor D inhibitor, BCX10013

  • Biomea Fusion (BMEA) Announces FDA Clearance of Investigational New Drug (IND) Application for Covalent Menin Inhibitor BMF-219 in Type 2 Diabetes

  • BorgWarner (BWA) Announces New Scope 3 Emissions Reduction Target in Commitment to a Cleaner Mobility Future

  • Capital One (COF) reports November card metrics

  • Centene (CNC) announces leadership changes; names Ken Fasola President; appoints Jim Murray COO; promotes Dave Thomas to CEO of Markets and Medicaid

  • Citigroup (C) aiming to wind down consumer unit in China, according to Reuters

  • Discover Financial Services (DFS): credit card delinquency rate for November (30 or more days) was 2.36%, up from 2.23% in October and 1.60% in the year-ago period

  • Eagle Bancorp (EGBN) authorizes new share repurchase program for up to 1.6 mln shares, or about 5% of outstanding shares, effective January 1, 2023; replaces current program

  • Eldorado Gold (EGO) announces 680 mln project financing and board approval for the Skouries project

  • Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) CFO Christina Chiu has also been named the company's COO

  • Ericsson (ERIC) agrees with the U.S. Department of Justice and SEC to extend the term of its Independent Compliance Monitor for one year, to June 2024

  • Fidelity Nat'l Info's (FIS) incoming CEO and Board commence review to strengthen performance and drive value creation

  • First Hawaiian (FHB) names James Moses as CFO

  • Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) amends credit facility to increase by $50 mln to $250 mln

  • Foxconn (HNHPF) eases most coronavirus restrictions at Apple (AAPL) iPhone factory in China, according to Bloomberg

  • Goodyear Tire (GT) names Christina Zamarro CFO

  • Grab (GRAB) aiming to cut costs, according to Reuters

  • HF Sinclair (DINO) agreed to repurchase an aggregate of 1 mln shares of the outstanding common stock from a registered broker for an aggregate purchase price of $48,600,000

  • Honeywell (HON) announces court approval of its buyout agreement with NARCO Trust, providing for elimination of company's funding obligations to the Trust

  • HYZON Motors (HYZN) entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement

  • Insulet (PODD) COO Charles Alpuche to retire, effective December 31; Senior VP, Global Operations Prem Singh to assume responsibilities

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reports November card metrics

  • Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM) Announces Holding Company Reorganization

  • Lamb Weston (LW) raises quarterly dividend by 14% to $0.28 per share

  • Lyell Immunopharma (LYEL) names Lynn Seely, MD as President and CEO

  • M&T Bank (MTB) names Daryl Bible CFO, effective 2Q23

  • PayPal (PYPL): ConsenSys teams with PYPL for a new way to buy crypto in MetaMask

  • Personalis (PSNL) CEO John West to retire at the end of 2022; CFO Aaron Tachibana to serve as interim CEO

  • PLBY Group (PLBY) CEO and other executive officers to sell a portion of shares from RSU Settlements to satisfy tax obligations

  • Rackspace Technology (RXT) issues update on measures it took to secure the hosted exchange email environment

  • Radian Group (RDN) discloses CFO departure

  • Realty Income (O) names Gregory Whyte as COO, effective Jan 3

  • Regeneron Pharma (REGN) and Sanofi (SNY) receive EC approval for Dupixent

  • TC Energy (TRP) restarts section of keystone pipeline, according to Reuters

  • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk disclosed the sale of 21,995,000 shares worth more than ~$3.5 bln (transaction dates were 12/12 - 12/14)

  • Tesla (TSLA): Cathie Wood adds to positions in Tesla and Coinbase (COIN), according to Bloomberg

  • Thermo Fisher (TMO): FDA grants EUA for its Monkeypox Virus DNA Kit

  • Third Harmonic Bio (THRD) announces discontinuation of phase 1b study of THB001 in Chronic Inducible Urticaria

  • Tronox (TROX) announces CFO Tim Carlson will retire on April 1, 2023; John Srivisal succeed as CFO

  • Volkswagen (VWAGY) CFO Arno Antlitz expects a challenging year in 2023, according to Bloomberg

  • Xeris Biopharma (XERS) Announces Plans for a Phase II Dose-Finding Study for Its Investigational Subcutaneous (SC) Levothyroxine (XP-8121) as Replacement Therapy for Hypothyroidism

M&A:

  • Agora (API) to sell its customer engagement cloud business segment of Easemob for approx. $14.6 mln in cash

  • Ericsson (ERIC) divests its local customer support business in Russia

  • Hillenbrand (HI) to sell Batesville Casket Company to affiliate of LongRange Capital for $761.5 mln including $11.5 mln sub-note

  • Shore Bancshares (SHBI) to merge with Community Financial (TCFC)

Syndicate:

  • Alliant Energy (LNT) entered into a distribution agreement for sale of common stock with offering price of up to $225,000,000

  • Astria Therapeutics (ATXS) priced an underwritten offering of 9,082,653 shares of its common stock at 11.01/share

  • Avidity Biosciences (RNA) announces offering of $150 mln in common stock

  • Byline Bancorp (BY) files for $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering

  • New Fortress Energy (NFE) prices secondary offering of 6.9 mln shares of common stock at $46.00 per share

  • Novavax (NVAX) announces $125 mln convertible notes offering; co also announces a $125 mln public offering for its common stock

  • Plains All American (PAA) enters into definitive agreements to sell its minority interest in Keyera Fort Saskatchewan facility for approximately $270 mln

  • Prothena (PRTA) prices offering of 3.25 mln shares of common stock at $56.50 per share

  • Rubicon Technologies (RBT) files for 24,616,551 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Vor Biopharma (VOR) files for 11,627,907 share common stock offering by selling shareholders

  • Wallbox (WBX) files for 8,176,694 Class A share offering by selling shareholders

IPOs:

  • Expect to Price:

    • No IPOs expected.

Gapping Up/Down

  • Gapping up:

    • BMEA +5.3%, VOR +4.9%, RICK +4.8%, NDSN +3.4%, PL +2%, BIGC +1.8%, WBX +1.7%, AGX +0.8%, CNC+0.7%, LW +0.7%, HON +0.6%, PODD +0.5%

  • Gapping down:

    • NVAX -9.9%, PSNL -7.8%, NFE -6.1%, FSM -3.9%, LEN -3.9%, TSLA -2%, PRTA -1%, O -0.7%, ERIC-0.6%, DFS -0.6%

 


Analyst Research (see Upgrades/Downgradescalendarfor full list):

  • Upgrades

    • Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $6

    • Avery Dennison (AVY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $205

    • BioNTech (BNTX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $239

    • First Republic Bank (FRC) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $125

    • Masimo (MASI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research; tgt $180

    • Radian Group (RDN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $24

    • Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $22

  • Downgrades:

    • Allegiant Travel (ALGT) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen; tgt $80

    • BankUnited (BKU) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $38

    • First Bancorp (FBP) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $14

    • Packaging Corp (PKG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $139

    • PacWest Bancorp (PACW) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $26

    • Sylvamo (SLVM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $58

  • Others:

    • AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $30

    • BlackRock (BLK) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $820

    • Denbury (DEN) resumed with an Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $73

    • Franklin Resources (BEN) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $26

    • Invesco (IVZ) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $22

    • Janus Henderson Group (JHG) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $24

    • Pool (POOL) initiated with an Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $291

    • T. Rowe Price (TROW) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $125

    • Warby Parker (WRBY) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $20

    • Wayfair (W) initiated with a Peer Perform at Wolfe Research

Upcoming Events:

  • Econ Data:

    • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales for Nov (Briefing.comConsensus -0.1%; Prior 1.3%)

    • 08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto for Nov (Briefing.comConsensus 0.2%; Prior 1.3%)

    • 08:30 ET: Initial Claims for Dec. 10 (Briefing.comConsensus 227K; Prior 230K)

    • 08:30 ET: Continuing Claims for Dec. 3 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior 1671K)

    • 08:30 ET: Philadelphia Fed Index for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus -10.0; Prior -19.4)

    • 08:30 ET: Empire State Manufacturing for Dec (Briefing.comConsensus -1.0; Prior 4.5)

    • 09:15 ET: Industrial Production for Nov (Briefing.comConsensus 0.1%; Prior -0.1%)

    • 09:15 ET: Capacity Utilization for Nov (Briefing.comConsensus 80.0%; Prior 79.9%)

    • 10:00 ET: Business Inventories for Oct (Briefing.comConsensus 0.4%; Prior 0.4%)

    • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories for Dec 10 (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior -21 bcf)

    • 16:00 ET: Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct (Briefing.comConsensus NA; Prior $118.0 B)

  • Earnings:

    • Monday (Dec 12)

      • Afternoon: COUP FLNC ORCL

    • Tuesday (Dec 13)

      • Morning: CNM PLAB

      • Afternoon:  ABM BRZE

    • Wednesday (Dec 14)

      • Morning:  REVG WEBR

      • Afternoon:  LEN NDSN TCOM

    • Thursday (Dec 15)

      • Morning: JBL

    • Friday (Dec 16) 

      • Morning:  ACN DRI WGO

Asia & Europe detail:

Asia: Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng -1.6%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly lower note. Equities in China and Hong Kong were pressured by weak November growth figures while property names were also among the laggards. China's National Stats Bureau reiterated that the foundation for an economic recovery is not solid yet. The Chinese government is expected to release a 12-year plan for expanding domestic demand. Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed yesterday's fed funds rate hike with its own 50-bps increase to 4.75%, as expected.

  • In economic data:

    • China's November Retail Sales -5.9% yr/yr (expected -3.7%; last -0.5%), November Industrial Production 2.2% yr/yr (expected 3.6%; last 5.0%), and November Fixed Asset Investment 5.3% yr/yr (expected 5.6%; last 5.8%). November House Prices -1.6% yr/yr (last -1.6%)

    • Japan's November trade deficit JPY2.03 trln (expected deficit of JPY1.68 trln; last deficit of JPY2.17 trln). November Imports 30.3% yr/yr (expected 27.0%; last 53.5%) and Exports 20.0% yr/yr (expected 19.8%; last 25.3%). October Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.2% m/m (expected 0.4%; last -0.2%)

    • South Korea's November Import Price Index 14.2% yr/yr (last 19.8%) and Export Price Index 8.6% yr/yr (last 13.5%)

    • Australia's November Employment Change 64,000 (expected 19,000; last 43,100) and full employment change 34,200 (last 47,100). November Unemployment Rate 3.4%, as expected (last 3.4%) and Participation Rate 66.8% (expected 66.6%; last 66.5%). MI Inflation Expectations 5.2% (last 6.0%)

    • New Zealand's Q3 GDP 2.0% qtr/qtr (expected 0.9%; last 1.9%); 6.4% yr/yr (expected 5.5%; last 0.3%)

---Equity Markets---

  • Japan's Nikkei: -0.4%

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.6%

  • China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%

  • India's Sensex: -1.4% 

  • South Korea's Kospi: -1.6%

  • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%

---FX---

  • USD/JPY: +0.9% to 136.62

  • USD/CNH: +0.4% to 6.9685

  • USD/INR: +0.3% to 82.78

Europe: DAX -1.2%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -1.2%

Major European indices trade in the red amid focus on central banks. The Bank of England raised its bank rate by 50 bps to 3.50%, as expected. Most BoE policymakers believe that further increases will be needed, and the BoE also noted that the U.K. is in a recession, expecting Q4 GDP to contract 0.1%. Separately, the Swiss National Bank raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 1.00% and Norges Bank raised its rate by 25 bps to 2.75%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to announce a 50-bps rate hike of its own at 8:15 ET. The U.K. may extend energy subsidies for businesses past the winter, though at a lower level.

  • In economic data:

    • Germany's November WPI -0.9% m/m (last -0.6%); 14.9% yr/yr (last 17.4%)

    • France's November CPI 0.3% m/m (expected 0.4%; last 1.0%); 6.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 6.2%). December Business Survey 101 (expected 100; last 101)

    • Spain's October trade deficit EUR6.85 bln (last deficit of EUR6.98 bln)

---Equity Markets---

  • STOXX Europe 600: -1.1%

  • Germany's DAX: -1.2% 

  • U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.5%

  • France's CAC 40: -1.2%

  • Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.0%

  • Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%

---FX---

  • EUR/USD: -0.6% to 1.0622

  • GBP/USD: -0.8% to 1.2326

  • USD/CHF: +0.4% to 0.9276

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